WSJ Says Mortgage Rates May Be At Their Lowest

According to an article in today's Wall Street Journal, mortgage rates may not go any lower, confounding many borrowers' hope that they will go lower and lower.

Take a look at the article below:


By JAMES R. HAGERTY

The Federal Reserve is going to extraordinary lengths to push down long-term interest rates, including home-mortgage rates. But those hoping mortgage rates will fall sharply from current levels, already historically low, may be disappointed.

Mortgage firms Thursday were quoting rates averaging 4.75% on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, according to Zillow.com, a real-estate information service. That is down from more than 5% two days ago and about 6% in mid-November. But further big declines will be hard to achieve, partly because the mortgage-lending market has grown less competitive in the past year as hundreds of small banks and independent mortgage lenders have collapsed. The big banks that dominate the market are eager to boost their profits margins, not give deeper bargains to consumers.
Rates for borrowers with the strongest credit are likely to be in a range of roughly 4.5% to 4.75% for the rest of this year, says Mahesh Swaminathan, a mortgage strategist at Credit Suisse in New York.

Others say that is too optimistic. Assuming no big change in government policy, Walter Schmidt, an analyst at FTN Financial Capital Markets, sees a range of 4.75% to 5.5% for most of this year.
The Fed began driving mortgage rates down in late November when it announced plans to buy as much as $500 billion of mortgage securities this year. On Wednesday, the Fed expanded that program, saying it will spend as much as $1.25 trillion on such securities in 2009. That is enough to provide funding for more than half of all home-mortgage loans likely to be made in the U.S. this year.

The Fed also is buying long-term Treasury bonds to drive down rates on those securities, whose pricing affects mortgage rates.

By historical standards, rates look incredibly low. Until recently, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages hadn't been below 5% since the 1950s. For the past couple of months, rates have been bobbing between about 5% and 5.25%. The 30-year rate averaged 4.98% in the week ended March 19, down from 5.03% the prior week, according to Freddie Mac's survey. Fifteen-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 4.61%, down from 4.64%.
One reason mortgage rates often tick back up after a decline is that a rush of people seeking to refinance quickly causes backlogs at lenders, which frequently don't have enough employees to process all of the applications.

"If lenders are working people overtime to close loans, they don't have an incentive to compete too hard on price," says Arthur Frank, who heads research on mortgage securities at Deutsche Bank in New York.

The situation highlights a conundrum for the government. It wants low rates to spur the housing market, but also wants the banks to make profits on loans so they can return to financial health.
Many of the small mortgage banks that remain are struggling. Mortgage banks, often small, family-owned companies, aren't licensed to take deposits and so lack that source of money for their loans. Instead, they typically borrow money for short periods from so-called warehouse lenders. They use this short-term credit to make loans to their customers and then pay back the warehouse lenders after selling the loans to bigger banks or to government-backed mortgage investors Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

But this warehouse credit is much harder to obtain than it was a year or two ago because many of the big banks and Wall Street firms that used to provide it have exited that business.
Despite these constraints, the Fed's action is "going to be a plus" for the housing market, says Thomas Lawler, an economist in Leesburg, Va. Lower rates make it more likely that home prices will hit bottom in many parts of the country later this year, Mr. Lawler says. The recovery, though, is likely to be gradual, partly because rising unemployment reduces housing demand.
Christopher J. Mayer, a real-estate professor at Columbia Business School in New York, says the Fed's moves to cut rates are "helping to put a floor under the housing market." But he worries that the Fed could face huge losses on the mortgage securities if inflation fears eventually push interest rates much higher.

Still, the consumers who need these low rates the most aren't likely to get much help. Many people can't qualify for these low rates because their credit scores aren't high enough or they can't afford a down payment of 20% or more on a home purchase. Such people will be socked with fees that can drive up their housing costs considerably. Banks also have become far pickier about appraisals and are nixing many purchases as a result.

Others can't qualify for a refinancing because they owe far more on their homes than the estimated current market values. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have new refinancing programs that will let some borrowers refinance into lower rates even if they owe as much as 105% of the home value, but only for current loans owned or guaranteed by Fannie or Freddie.

Write to James R. Hagerty at bob.hagerty@wsj.com

Printed in The Wall Street Journal, page C1

Fed Rate Cut, Why Not My Rate?

The recent Fed rate cut to 4.75% is more directly related to the interest of Home Equity Lines of Credit as they are generally tied to Prime (currently 7.75%). Since Prime floats 3% above the Fed Rate there is a direct relationship between the two.

Counter-intuitive though is why the 30 conforming (Fannie and Freddie) fixed mortgage interest rate has gone up a bit since the most recent Fed rate cut. The bellwether for the conforming fixed rate is the 10 year treasury bond yield. That has been increasing as investors have been selling off bonds the last few days. The reason for the sell-off is that investors worry that the Fed rate cut might kick-start inflationary pressures.

So, despite people's wish for the opposite, the Fed rate cut has negatively impacted mortgage rates for the short term.

30 Year Fixed Rate Interest Only

The subprime market is imploding or exploding, depending on which side of the fence you are standing. The rumors circulating among homebuyers are that all interest only mortgages are risky and should be avoided. In many cases that may be true, but I think, more true, is a confusion among buyers about mortgage programs in general.An interest only mortgage is not a subprime mortgage necessarily. In fact, it's generally an option for only the most qualified buyers. It even makes sense for those who plan on prepaying the balance of their mortgage on their own. Why? Payment recast.With a 30 year interest only mortgage, the payment due each month is an interest only payment. So on a $400,000 mortgage at 6%, the monthly interest only payment is $2000, rather than the principal and interest payment of $2398.20, where $2000 is the interest payment and $398.20 is paying back the loan each month at the same 6% interest rate.If a well-qualified, disciplined borrower chooses the interest only option, and continues to pay the same payment as the fully amortizing payment, her payment will be reduced based on the new principal balance each month.Here's an example:Keiko, buys a $500,000 coop here in New York City. The coop requires a 20% down payment, so her mortgage is $400,000. She decides on a 30 year fixed rate interest only mortgage. Her first month's payment is $2000, but she pays $2398, indicating that the additional amount goes directly toward principal on her statement when she mails her payment. The next month, her payment is reduced to $1998.01 based on the new loan balance of $399,601.80. If she continues to pay $398 in addition to the interest only payment each month, at the end of the first year, her interest only payment will be reduced to $1976.11. If she chooses, she may elect to pay the interest only payment giving her the freedom to spend the difference in another manner (hopefully paying down credit card debt that's more expensive).Her payment is reduced to reflect the lower principal balance offering her immediate gratification for her discipline. A well disciplined borrower may welcome the freedom of being to either pay down the principal or put the money to use elsewhere on a month to month basis while having the security of a fixed rate for the life of the loan.