Bouncing into Fed Week

Jeffrey Loyd Mortgage Loan Officer Phone: +1 212 243-0373 Fax +1 347 686-6406 NMLS #:: 410097 jloyd@unfcu.com www.unfcu.org/JeffreyL
In This Issue   Last Week in Review: What is Influencing Rates Today? Forecast for the Week: What Will the Fed Do and Say? View: Learn How Podcasts Can Help Your Business Last Week in Review   "It's a tug of war, we expected more"... Tug of War, Paul McCartney Home loan rates bounced around this week, due to volatility in the U.S. Bond market, but went into the weekend still near three-month lows. There are push/pull items that continue to limit how low and high rates can go. Here is what home shoppers should know: Factors currently limiting how low rates can go: Tight U.S. labor market. Rising wages, fastest pace in a decade. Soaring business and consumer confidence. Solid economic growth. Tough technical barriers (look at chart below). Factors currently limiting how high rates can go: Slowing economic conditions around the globe. Low global bond yields - German 10-year Bond yield is 0.28% and the U.S. 10-year Note yield is 2.90%. If yields stay low in other parts of the globe, there is a limit as to how high long-term rates can go. Disinflation or slowdown in the rate of inflation around globe, including the U.S. A split Congress that likely ensures no real fiscal stimulus in the near future. Pace of Fed rates hikes are slowing due to all of the above. Bottom line, we are in a very unique economy where we have strong growth, a tight labor market, low inflation and low rates...all making a great backdrop to buy a home. If you or someone you know has questions about home loans, give me a call. I'd be happy to help. Forecast for the Week   Next week it's all about the Fed! The scheduled two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting will kick off on Tuesday and ends Wednesday with the release of the monetary policy statement at 2:00 p.m. ET. The financial markets have placed an 80% probability that the Fed will increase the short-term Fed Funds Rate by 0.25% to 2.75%. With the rate hike expected, what the statement reveals regarding the path of future interest rate moves may be the market moving event. Come Friday, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the annual Core PCE, will be released. With future rate hikes being mostly determined by the rate of inflation - this is an important number to track. Reports to watch: The Empire Manufacturing Index will be delivered on Monday followed by the Philadelphia Fed Index on Thursday. Housing Starts and Building Permits will be released on Tuesday followed by Existing Home Sales on Wednesday. The final reading on third-quarter Gross Domestic Product will be released on Friday along with Core PCE. Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday, December 14, 2018) The Mortgage Market Guide View...   Tip: The Power of Podcasts Podcasts are one of the hottest mediums being used in marketing today. Regular podcast listeners will tune in to up to five hours of podcasting a week. Why are podcasts becoming more and more popular? As your clients' daily lives become more hectic, multitasking becomes even more vital. That means absorbing information while working out, relaxing on the couch, or during their daily commutes. Being interviewed as a guest on a podcast is a fantastic way to help boost your personal SEO and convey your brand image to a wide range of potential clients in a short period of time. To make the most of a podcast interview, always make sure: The information you provide is interview-worthy, easy to understand, and valuable. The podcast topic is a good fit with your brand image and that you're providing information to an audience in your target market. Podcasts can not only be used to boost your personal brand, but they can also be a great way to interact with potential clients, help build yourself up as an expert in the industry, show your confidence, and even help build up your social media following. The best part is that you don't have to have a degree in marketing or journalism to be effective in a podcast. Unlike other media, podcasting is meant to be informal, interactive, and informational. Creating podcasts or being a guest on them is an excellent way to establish trust, get your name out as an expert in the industry, and build up your personal brand. Loyal listeners can quickly turn into loyal customers. Sources: Huffington Post, Search Engine Land Economic Calendar for the Week of December 17 - December 21 Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact Mon. December 17 08:30 Empire State Index Dec NA 23.3 Moderate Mon. December 17 10:00 Housing Market Index Dec NA 60 Moderate Tue. December 18 08:30 Housing Starts Nov NA 1.228M Moderate Tue. December 18 08:30 Building Permits Nov NA 1.263M Moderate Tue. December 18 10:00 Existing Home Sales Nov NA 5.22M Moderate Wed. December 19 14:00 FOMC Meeting Nov 0.25% 2.50% HIGH Thu. December 20 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) `12/15 NA NA Moderate Thu. December 20 08:30 Philadelphia Fed Index Dec NA 12.9 HIGH Fri. December 21 08:30 Personal Spending Nov NA 0.4% Moderate Fri. December 21 08:30 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q3 NA 3.5% HIGH Fri. December 21 08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE Nov NA 0.2% HIGH Fri. December 21 08:30 GDP Chain Deflator Q3 NA 1.7% HIGH Fri. December 21 08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE YOY NA 1.8% HIGH Fri. December 21 08:30 Personal Income Nov NA 0.2% Moderate Fri. December 21 08:30 Durable Goods Orders Nov NA -4.4% Moderate This credit union is federally insured by the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA). Accounts and shares are insured by the Administration to the maximum insurance amount for each member or shareholder. Unless otherwise noted, fees may be associated with certain products and services. Certain UNFCU products and services are subject to approval. Federal and state laws may limit the availability of certain products and services in select areas. UNFCU is a registered mark of the United Nations Federal Credit Union. The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only and is not intended for consumer distribution. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is without errors. Mortgage Market Guide, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Market Guide, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.

Be a Fred

A great read! How To Be A Fred by Thomas Yuschak is a quick read. And well worth it. The concept I wanted to share was how Yuschak defines pressure as different than stress. For me, this was what stuck. "Stress is a physiological response to pressure but it's not the pressure itself. Pressure sets the level of urgency, the level of importance, the level of visibility." We aren't so evolved that on some internal level, in our reptilian brains, our reaction to day to day pressure is akin to a lion attacking us. It's important to separate pressure from stress. It's vital, I would say. If we separate the two, we can best identify the pressure points from our reaction. Then we can use the pressure constructively while alleviating life-destroying stress. 3 Key Concepts: "Pressure can be a powerful motivator whereas stress can leave us uncaring." "Pressure can bring out the best in us whereas stress can bring out the worst." "Pressure can raise us to a higher level of performance whereas stress can shut us down almost completely." And lastly, "To avoid letting pressure transform into stress, we'll have to learn to separate our emotions from the pressure we're under." The way we can do this is to understand our priorities and not allow the day to day to distract us from them. Yuschak suggests we take the time to imagine ourselves looking back on this time. How would we minimize our regrets? What would feel satisfying? From there we can establish Short Term Life Priorities, and Short Term Career Priorities. We can also establish Long Term priorities in both areas. This will keep us on track. Perhaps we can all use a little Fred. Have a great week selling! If you want to buy the book, get it here.

Santa Clause Rally in Bonds

Jeffrey Loyd Mortgage Loan Officer Phone: +1 212 243-0373 Fax +1 347 686-6406 NMLS #:: 410097 jloyd@unfcu.com www.unfcu.org/JeffreyL

In This Issue   Last Week in Review: Summer Rates Return Forecast for the Week: Will History Repeat Itself? View: Social Media Marketing Tips Last Week in Review   "We want what we don't have, be careful what you ask for"... Everclear As it pertains to low rates "Be careful what you ask for" - it will likely take pain, chaos, fear and uncertainty to get them. This past Thursday, thanks to uncertainty around the U.S. and China trade deal, fear of slowing global economic growth, a roughed-up Stock market and the likelihood of fewer Fed rate hikes, the Bond market and home loan rates hit their best levels in three months. On Friday, the Labor Department reported that 155,000 jobs were created in November, a bit less than expectations of 189,000. The labor market remains incredibly strong and wages are rising at fastest pace in a decade. Low rates coupled with a solid labor market and rising wages make for great home purchase conditions. It appears the highest home loan rates for 2018 are behind us and with low inflation and low bond yields in Europe and Asia, our home loan rates should not go too high for the foreseeable future. That is great news as we head into 2019. If you or someone you know has questions about home loans, give me a call. I'd be happy to help. Forecast for the Week   The Bond market, while at three-month highs, are starting the week right near a strong technical barrier (see chart below) which has prevented further rate improvement in the past. The last time Bond prices were at current levels, they moved lower pretty quickly causing interest rates to spike higher. If history repeats itself, last Thursday's intra-day and multi-month low may serve as a near-term bottom in rates. There is a slew of important economic reports set for release which can keep the volatility going, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which gives us a reading on consumer inflation. What will be interesting to follow is how the Bond markets react to a total of $78 billion in Treasury Notes and Bonds being sold this week with yields near 3-month lows. If investors dont like the lower yields and the auctions dont do well, rates may tick higher. Reports to watch: The wholesale inflation reading Producer Price Index will be released on Tuesday with the more critical Consumer Price Index on Wednesday. The other key report to watch will be Friday's Retail Sales Report. Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday, December 07, 2018) The Mortgage Market Guide View...   Tip: 3 Foolproof Social Media Marketing Tips The social media scene can be overwhelming. When you're implementing social media in your marketing strategy, it helps to know where to start. As more and more consumers turn toward social media for company reviews, information, and questions, it becomes one of the most effective ways to get in front of potential home buyers. Choose the right platform. Should you focus on Facebook? Instagram? Twitter? Pinterest? Not every platform will work for every business type and brand messaging. You should choose based on what your customers are using, and a platform you feel comfortable utilizing. Get comfortable. Once you decide between Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, or any other platform, you'll need to be comfortable engaging your customers. You will need to interact with your client base on a regular basis. This means engaging at all levels, including regular posting, responding to comments, and answering questions. Learn how to optimize. Using social media will not guarantee results. You'll need to learn how to optimize your strategy. Always use a real and professional photo so your clients can make that human connection and you can begin to build trust. Also, link to your website and make contact information readily available. Optimizing your social media profiles, choosing the right platforms, and consistently posting and engaging with your client base are all critical tips to follow to get the most out of your social media marketing. Sources: Forbes, mConnexions Economic Calendar for the Week of December 10 - December 14 Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact Tue. December 11 08:30 Core Producer Index Nov NA 0.5% Moderate Tue. December 11 08:30 Producer Price Index (PPI) Nov NA 0.6% Moderate Wed. December 12 08:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) Nov NA 0.3% HIGH Wed. December 12 08:30 Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) Nov NA 0.2% HIGH Thu. December 13 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 12/08 NA NA Moderate Fri. December 14 08:30 Retail Sales Nov NA 0.8% HIGH Fri. December 14 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Nov NA 0.7% HIGH This credit union is federally insured by the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA). Accounts and shares are insured by the Administration to the maximum insurance amount for each member or shareholder. Unless otherwise noted, fees may be associated with certain products and services. Certain UNFCU products and services are subject to approval. Federal and state laws may limit the availability of certain products and services in select areas. UNFCU is a registered mark of the United Nations Federal Credit Union. The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only and is not intended for consumer distribution. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is without errors. As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you. Mortgage Market Guide, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Market Guide, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose. You received this email as a result of your ongoing business relationship with Jeffrey Loyd. While beneficial to a wide audience, this information is also commercial in nature and it may contain advertising materials. Powered by DB Nurture. © 2018. Vantage Production, LLC. All rights reserved.

Every Deal Is Precious - Be Sure Your Buyer is Pre-Approved!

Follow Me On:

Jeffrey Loyd NMLS #:410097 Mortgage Loan Officer Phone: +1 212 243-0373 Fax +1 347 686-6406 jloyd@unfcu.com www.unfcu.org/JeffreyL

Every Deal Is Precious - Be Sure Your Buyer is Pre-Approved! It's a changing market. Buyers are negotiating harder on price, on the removal of tenants, on inspections...on everything. Sellers don't want to budge on price, on the removal of tenants, on inspections...on anything. Resilience is so vital in the real estate business today. Perhaps more today than since the crisis back in 2008-2009. Every deal is precious. Everything needs to be lined up just so to make the deal happen. Buyers are also aware of the increasing rate environment. Buyers want to negotiate rates before they find the right home to buy. Makes sense to them. What if they don't qualify for the rate they negotiated? What happens when the deal falls out because the buyer wasn't a qualified as they thought? Get a fully underwritten preapproval before negotiating terms with the seller. Don't let the next (precious, hard to come by, painstaking) deal fall out because the buyer assumed they were well qualified. Most lenders will do a fully underwritten preapproval for free. If not, refer them to one who will. UNFCU offers fully underwritten preapprovals. The client submits a mortgage application package (income, assets, liabilities) — our NYC based underwriters' review and approval of the application on a pre-approval basis. We issue the Commitment Letter pending an appraisal - before the negotiations are exhausted! Now you can negotiate all the details to get the deal into contract without concern for the financing. That is now in place upfront. I wanted to keep this email short. If this interests you or could help you at this time, please reach out. You can call me at +1 212-243-0373 or email me at jloyd@unfcu.com. Or check my website at www.unfcu.org/JeffreyL United Nations Federal Credit Union Niche Residential Mortgage Lending: Foreign National Home Loans No foreign tax returns required No Visa required for investment properties No US income required No US credit required Non-warrantable condos and cooperatives Title Vesting in an LLC or Trust Please feel free to delete this email if this doesn't concern you or if I have reached the wrong person by mistake, thank you.

This credit union is federally insured by the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA). Accounts and shares are insured by the Administration to the maximum insurance amount for each member or shareholder. Unless otherwise noted, fees may be associated with certain products and services. Certain UNFCU products and services are subject to approval. Federal and state laws may limit the availability of certain products and services in select areas. UNFCU is a registered mark of the United Nations Federal Credit Union.