Bouncing into Fed Week

Jeffrey Loyd Mortgage Loan Officer Phone: +1 212 243-0373 Fax +1 347 686-6406 NMLS #:: 410097 jloyd@unfcu.com www.unfcu.org/JeffreyL
In This Issue   Last Week in Review: What is Influencing Rates Today? Forecast for the Week: What Will the Fed Do and Say? View: Learn How Podcasts Can Help Your Business Last Week in Review   "It's a tug of war, we expected more"... Tug of War, Paul McCartney Home loan rates bounced around this week, due to volatility in the U.S. Bond market, but went into the weekend still near three-month lows. There are push/pull items that continue to limit how low and high rates can go. Here is what home shoppers should know: Factors currently limiting how low rates can go: Tight U.S. labor market. Rising wages, fastest pace in a decade. Soaring business and consumer confidence. Solid economic growth. Tough technical barriers (look at chart below). Factors currently limiting how high rates can go: Slowing economic conditions around the globe. Low global bond yields - German 10-year Bond yield is 0.28% and the U.S. 10-year Note yield is 2.90%. If yields stay low in other parts of the globe, there is a limit as to how high long-term rates can go. Disinflation or slowdown in the rate of inflation around globe, including the U.S. A split Congress that likely ensures no real fiscal stimulus in the near future. Pace of Fed rates hikes are slowing due to all of the above. Bottom line, we are in a very unique economy where we have strong growth, a tight labor market, low inflation and low rates...all making a great backdrop to buy a home. If you or someone you know has questions about home loans, give me a call. I'd be happy to help. Forecast for the Week   Next week it's all about the Fed! The scheduled two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting will kick off on Tuesday and ends Wednesday with the release of the monetary policy statement at 2:00 p.m. ET. The financial markets have placed an 80% probability that the Fed will increase the short-term Fed Funds Rate by 0.25% to 2.75%. With the rate hike expected, what the statement reveals regarding the path of future interest rate moves may be the market moving event. Come Friday, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the annual Core PCE, will be released. With future rate hikes being mostly determined by the rate of inflation - this is an important number to track. Reports to watch: The Empire Manufacturing Index will be delivered on Monday followed by the Philadelphia Fed Index on Thursday. Housing Starts and Building Permits will be released on Tuesday followed by Existing Home Sales on Wednesday. The final reading on third-quarter Gross Domestic Product will be released on Friday along with Core PCE. Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday, December 14, 2018) The Mortgage Market Guide View...   Tip: The Power of Podcasts Podcasts are one of the hottest mediums being used in marketing today. Regular podcast listeners will tune in to up to five hours of podcasting a week. Why are podcasts becoming more and more popular? As your clients' daily lives become more hectic, multitasking becomes even more vital. That means absorbing information while working out, relaxing on the couch, or during their daily commutes. Being interviewed as a guest on a podcast is a fantastic way to help boost your personal SEO and convey your brand image to a wide range of potential clients in a short period of time. To make the most of a podcast interview, always make sure: The information you provide is interview-worthy, easy to understand, and valuable. The podcast topic is a good fit with your brand image and that you're providing information to an audience in your target market. Podcasts can not only be used to boost your personal brand, but they can also be a great way to interact with potential clients, help build yourself up as an expert in the industry, show your confidence, and even help build up your social media following. The best part is that you don't have to have a degree in marketing or journalism to be effective in a podcast. Unlike other media, podcasting is meant to be informal, interactive, and informational. Creating podcasts or being a guest on them is an excellent way to establish trust, get your name out as an expert in the industry, and build up your personal brand. Loyal listeners can quickly turn into loyal customers. Sources: Huffington Post, Search Engine Land Economic Calendar for the Week of December 17 - December 21 Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact Mon. December 17 08:30 Empire State Index Dec NA 23.3 Moderate Mon. December 17 10:00 Housing Market Index Dec NA 60 Moderate Tue. December 18 08:30 Housing Starts Nov NA 1.228M Moderate Tue. December 18 08:30 Building Permits Nov NA 1.263M Moderate Tue. December 18 10:00 Existing Home Sales Nov NA 5.22M Moderate Wed. December 19 14:00 FOMC Meeting Nov 0.25% 2.50% HIGH Thu. December 20 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) `12/15 NA NA Moderate Thu. December 20 08:30 Philadelphia Fed Index Dec NA 12.9 HIGH Fri. December 21 08:30 Personal Spending Nov NA 0.4% Moderate Fri. December 21 08:30 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q3 NA 3.5% HIGH Fri. December 21 08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE Nov NA 0.2% HIGH Fri. December 21 08:30 GDP Chain Deflator Q3 NA 1.7% HIGH Fri. December 21 08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE YOY NA 1.8% HIGH Fri. December 21 08:30 Personal Income Nov NA 0.2% Moderate Fri. December 21 08:30 Durable Goods Orders Nov NA -4.4% Moderate This credit union is federally insured by the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA). Accounts and shares are insured by the Administration to the maximum insurance amount for each member or shareholder. Unless otherwise noted, fees may be associated with certain products and services. Certain UNFCU products and services are subject to approval. 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