Rates are Going Down!

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Mortgage rates continued to decline this week and are at 12-month lows falling for the third consecutive week. Freddie Mac reports that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell two basis points to 4.35% with an average of 0.5 in points and fees. Last year this time, the rate was 4.40%. Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist says, "Wages are growing on par with home prices for the first time in years, and with more inventory available, spring home sales should help the market begin to recover from the malaise of the last few months.”

The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) reports that sales of existing homes fell in January for the third straight month but greener pastures could be ahead, says the NAR. Existing Home Sales fell 1.2% from December to an annual rate of 4.94 million annualized units vs the 5.05 million expected, the lowest since November 2015. Compared to last year, sales are down 8.5%. The Midwest, South, and West all saw declines in sales while the Northeast had gains. The median home price rose 2.8% from January 2018 to $247,500. Inventories are at a 3.9-month supply, below the normal level of six months. "Moderating home prices combined with gains in household income will boost housing affordability, bringing more buyers to the market in the coming months,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist.

The January Fed minutes were released yesterday with the keyword being "patient" regarding any interest rate hikes in 2019. Most likely, the Fed will be on hold for 2019 and not raise the benchmark Fed Funds Rate, unless there is a big surprise spike in inflation. As far as the Fed's balance sheet, policymakers seem to have united around a plan to stop the balance sheet runoff at year's end. The U.S. markets may get additional clues at the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Why Retail Sales hitting a 9-year low could be bad

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Jeffrey Loyd Mortgage Loan Officer Phone: +1 212 243-0373 Fax +1 347 686-6406 NMLS #:: 410097 jloyd@unfcu.com www.unfcu.org/JeffreyL

In This Issue   Last Week in Review: Canary in the coal mine. Forecast for the Week: Housing reports on tap. View: Learn more about conducting a perfect open house. Last Week in Review   "Only got twenty dollars in my pocket" ...Thrift Shop by Macklemore & Ryan Lewis. The financial markets are sensing a government shutdown and protracted trade war with China will be averted. This is good news and a reason why Stocks have continued to push higher and home loan rates have capped for the past few weeks. But last Thursday, Retail Sales was reported at a shocking 9-year low. Combing through the report, a 3.9% decline in internet purchases was a huge negative surprise. With consumer spending making up nearly 70% of GDP, there is fear in the markets that this very poor Retail Sales number is an early warning sign that both consumer spending and thus economic growth are indeed slowing. One thing we know for sure -- Bonds love uncertainty and bad news. This Retail Sales report brought both and, as a result, pushed prices and home loan rates near the best levels in a year. We will be watching future Retail Sales reports to see if this is just one bad report or the start of a negative trend. In any case, reports like these support the Fed to not raise rates in 2019. If you or someone you know has questions about home loans, give me a call. I'd be happy to help. Forecast for the Week   This week, housing data dominates the headlines as the sector looks to rebound after ending 2018 on a low note. Freddie Mac said last week that while housing activity has clearly softened over the last nine months and the lingering effects of higher rates from last year are still being felt, the recent decline in home loan rates coupled with a strong job market should rekindle demand as we enter the spring home buying season. The minutes from the January Fed meeting will also be released and, while it is generally accepted that the Fed will be on hold for interest rates, the investing community will closely scrutinize the minutes for any signals on the Fed's balance sheet reduction. All U.S. markets are closed on Monday in observance of President's Day. Reports to watch: NAHB Housing Market Index will be released on Tuesday followed by Housing Starts and Building Permits on Wednesday and Existing Home Sales on Thursday. The Philadelphia Fed Index will be delivered on Thursday along with Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Durable Orders. Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday, February 15, 2019) The Mortgage Market Guide View...   Tip: How Do You Carry Out a Perfect Open House? A successful property showing followed by a sale often depends on a good open house. Let's look at four tips for the perfect open house. Make a good first impression by sprucing up the front door. Because the front door is the first thing a prospective buyer sees, an inviting front door and entrance set the tone for the rest of the house. Give the viewers space. Although you need to be available to answer questions, make sure you give homebuyers time and room to have a good look around the house and property. In that way, they can start picturing it as their own home. Create a single property website. Potential buyers often spend a lot of time during an open house trying to take photos of the house from every angle. An effective marketing strategy is to create a property website that includes detailed photos of the house along with all the features, both internal and external, of the house. Once this is done, give a simple flyer to all visitors to the open house with a short URL link or QR code where visitors can browse the photos. Running a Facebook Live stream of the open house is a great way to get social media activity and have viewers' eyes on the home. A live stream showing other people viewing the house builds momentum and desire for anyone viewing the video. Even if you don't sell the house that day, use the open day as an opportunity to create the video and market it online. These few open house tips will help you to plan an open house that attracts buyers and impresses your clients. Make your open house shine. Source: Fitsmallbusiness Economic Calendar for the Week of February 18 - February 22 Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact Tue. February 19 10:00 Housing Market Index Feb NA 58 Moderate Wed. February 20 14:00 FOMC Minutes Jan NA NA HIGH Wed. February 20 08:30 Building Permits Jan NA NA Moderate Wed. February 20 08:30 Housing Starts Jan NA NA Moderate Thu. February 21 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jan NA 4.99M Moderate Thu. February 21 08:30 Durable Goods Orders Dec NA 0.8% Moderate Thu. February 21 08:30 Philadelphia Fed Index Feb NA 17.0 HIGH This credit union is federally insured by the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA). Accounts and shares are insured by the Administration to the maximum insurance amount for each member or shareholder. Unless otherwise noted, fees may be associated with certain products and services. Certain UNFCU products and services are subject to approval. Federal and state laws may limit the availability of certain products and services in select areas. UNFCU is a registered mark of the United Nations Federal Credit Union. The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only and is not intended for consumer distribution. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is without errors. Mortgage Market Guide, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Market Guide, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose. © 2019. Vantage Production, LLC. All rights reserved.

What will be the next move for the Fed?

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Jeffrey Loyd Mortgage Loan Officer Phone: +1 212 243-0373 Fax +1 347 686-6406 NMLS #:: 410097 jloyd@unfcu.com www.unfcu.org/JeffreyL

In This Issue Last Week in Review: Euro issues drift onto our shores Forecast for the Week: Economic reports are back View: Learn more about referral-only business practice and decide if it's right for you. Last Week in Review Bad news is good news for the U.S. Bond market and rates. This past week, bad news by way of worse than expected economic numbers in Europe cast a dark shadow on the financial markets. As a result, U.S. home loan rates ticked down to the best levels in ten months. The U.S. economy is the "cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry" when compared to other global economies -- meaning our economy is performing pretty well, while countries like Germany are on the brink of recession. How do problems in Europe help our rates? With their economies materially slowing, their Central Bank, the ECB, will not be raising rates anytime soon -- possibly not for another year or more. This means their rates will stay low for longer. And when rates around the globe move lower it drags U.S. rates lower as well. The chance of a Fed rate hike in 2019 is looking more unlikely every day and this fresh round of weak economic data from Europe helps the Feds case for no hikes in 2019. In the absence of a surprise uptick in economic growth and inflation, we should expect home loan rates to remain near current levels for2019 and possibly beyond. If you or someone you know has questions about home loans, give me a call. I'd be happy to help. Forecast for the Week After last week's light schedule of economic data, this week's calendar is filled with data that could move the markets and interest rates. The Fed is "data-dependent," meaning they are watching the incoming data carefully and will use these reports to determine their next course of action -- whether to hike or even cut rates later this year. Inflation numbers, manufacturing, consumer spending and sentiment along with a reading on small business optimism will be released. As mentioned earlier, inflation is a key metric for the Fed. The rate of inflation has started to show signs of slowing -- if that trend continues, we will likely see home loan rates improve again. Reports to watch: Inflation data in the upcoming week will come from Wednesdays Consumer Price Index followed by the Producer Price Index on Thursday. Retail Sales will be delivered on Thursday along with Weekly Initial Jobless Claims. On Friday, the Empire Manufacturing Index and Consumer Sentimentwill be released. And while not a traditional economic data point, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index will be announced on Tuesday. Small businesses make up a large chunk of the U.S. labor market and the index has been hovering near all-time high levels. Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday, February 8, 2019) The Mortgage Market Guide View... Tip: Is a Referral-Only Business Practice Right for Me? Looking for new real estate clients takes ample time. Yet it's a necessary task if you want to grow your business. However, what if you could save time searching for new clients because they all came to you? While it sounds too good to be true, many agents grow their business solely through referrals. Read on to learn more about a referral-only business practice and decide if it's right for you. Growing a referral-only business does have some advantages. First, you won't have to spend any extra money on advertising or networking. Also, when you talk to clients who are referred to you, they're usually ready to do business right away. Finally, since friends and family members are typically the ones who send referrals your way, a level of trust is already there. Of course, every business practice has some drawbacks, and the referral-only practice is no exception. You lose an element of control with a referral-only business because referrals can happen at any time and with anybody. Also, if the referrals stop, you have to start building up your client base all over again. If you think you're interested in moving toward a referral-only business practice, you should start by setting clear and defined referral goals. Also, remember that you can reach out to current and past clients, business associates, and professional contacts for referrals. Once you've weighed the advantages and disadvantages of a referral-only business practice and decided it's right for you, be sure to implement these tips to help your business continue to grow. Sources: Real Estate Express, Houston Chronicle Economic Calendar for the Week of February 11 - February 15 Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact Wed. February 13 08:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) Jan NA -0.1% HIGH Wed. February 13 08:30 Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) Jan NA 0.2% HIGH Thu. February 14 08:30 Producer Price Index (PPI) Jan NA -0.2% Moderate Thu. February 14 08:30 Core Producer Price Index (PPI) Jan NA 0.2% Moderate Thu. February 14 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 2/09 NA NA Moderate Fri. February 15 08:30 Retail Sales Jan NA NA HIGH Fri. February 15 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Jan NA NA HIGH Fri. February 15 08:30 Empire State Index Feb NA 3.9 Moderate Fri. February 15 10:00 Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM) Feb NA 91.2 Moderate This credit union is federally insured by the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA). Accounts and shares are insured by the Administration to the maximum insurance amount for each member or shareholder. Unless otherwise noted, fees may be associated with certain products and services. Certain UNFCU products and services are subject to approval. Federal and state laws may limit the availability of certain products and services in select areas. UNFCU is a registered mark of the United Nations Federal Credit Union. The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only and is not intended for consumer distribution. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is without errors. Mortgage Market Guide, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Market Guide, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose. © 2019. Vantage Production, LLC. All rights reserved.

Amazon Ditches NYC

Consumer sentiment pushed higher in early February due in part to the end of the partial government shutdown and after the Federal Reserve signal that it will pause in raising interest rates. The Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 95.5 this month, up from 91.2 in January and above the 94 expected. Within the data, it showed that consumers' long-term inflation expectations fell to the lowest level in the past half-century. In addition, consumers expect incomes to rise more than any other time in over 15 years.

In a reversal of fortune or misfortune, from whatever side you look at it, Amazon has scrapped plans to build a headquarters in New York City. Amazon cited opposition from state and local politicians. The new "HQ" was also met with protests while the $3 billion in incentives for the e-commerce giant were also met with criticism. A Quinnipiac poll from December showed strong support for the new campus, with 60% of Queens residents approving of the project and 26% against it.

Business activity in New York State grew modestly in February while the New Orders Index and labor markets both increased. The Empire Manufacturing Index rose to 8.8 in February from 3.9 in January. After slumping last month, indexes assessing the six-month outlook improved noticeably, suggesting firms were fairly optimistic about future conditions.

Mortgage Application Decline

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reports that its Market Composite Index, a measure of total mortgage loan application volume, fell 2.5% in the week ended February 1, 2019. The MBA said the refinance index was near unchanged while the purchase index declined 5%.

Mortgage rates edged lower in the latest week to the lowest levels since April 2018. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell seven basis point to 4.69% with an average of 0.45 in points. Joel Kan, the MBAs Associate Vice President of Industry Surveys and Forecasts said, "Moderating price gains and the strong job market, including evidence of faster wage growth, should help purchase growth going forward."

U.S. stocks are taking a breather today after the big gains seen since the lows seen on Christmas Eve. The closely watched S&P 500 Stock Index is up 16% since the low of 2,351 at the close on December 24. The index is now just 6% below its all-time closing high of 2,930 hit back on September 20 of last year. The recent gains are due in part to a reversal in the Fed's monetary policy outlook from hawkish to dovish along with solid readings from the labor markets.

Source: Mortgage Applications Decline in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The Fed throws a party for Stocks and Bonds

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Jeffrey Loyd Mortgage Loan Officer Phone: +1 212 243-0373 Fax +1 347 686-6406 NMLS #:: 410097 jloyd@unfcu.com www.unfcu.org/JeffreyL

In This Issue Last Week in Review: Why home loan rates will stay low Forecast for the Week: Things slow down a touch View: Learn how to use Facebook ads for lead generation Last Week in Review The Fed met this past week. As expected, they didn't hike rates and the Fed Statement was very "dovish," suggesting that rate hikes will be off the table for most, if not all, of 2019. The Fed looked to "muted inflation" and slowing economies abroad as reasons to show "patience" in hiking rates further. In response, home loan rates revisited the best levels of 2019 this past week. This new position by the Fed is a complete departure from where they were just a few months ago when Fed Chair Powell was forecasting 3 rate hikes this year. People owning Stocks are feeling wealthier as shares hit a multi-month high this week after rallying 14% since Christmas. This is good for housing. Job creations and wage growth are also fundamental to a healthy housing market and last week's terrific Jobs Report showed steady growth in both. More good news -- the Mortgage Bankers Association just released a forecast suggesting that 30-year mortgage rates will remain below 5.00% through 2020!!! If you or someone you know has questions about home loans, give me a call. I'd be happy to help. Forecast for the Week The upcoming week will be a dramatic change from last week with no major risk-filled events like the Fed meeting and Jobs Reports. There are just a few economic reports to be delivered, though the markets will have to contend with the ongoing U.S.-China trade issues along with another looming government shutdown on February 15. The Bond markets will also have to digest a total of $84 billion in Notes and Bonds being auctioned by the Treasury. At times, these auctions can limit rate improvement. Overall, with the Fed now more patient and inflation a non-issue we should not expect home loan rates to meaningfully tick higher anytime soon. At the same time -- with the U.S. economy continuing to be on solid footing, it's likely that further rate improvement will be limited. Reports to watch: The ISM Service Index will be released on Tuesday, followed by Productivity on Wednesday and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday. Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday, February 1, 2019) The Mortgage Market Guide View... Tip: How to Use Facebook Ads for Lead Generation If you're looking to generate more leads for your business, one option to consider is Facebook ads. Facebook ads for lead generation can help you build an audience of people interested in what you have to offer. If you've never tried using Facebook ads for lead generation, these tips can help you get started. Know Your Ideal Customer. The first step to creating an enticing Facebook ad is to know who you're trying to target. Therefore, you need to know your audience well. What kind of problems do they have? How can you help solve those problems? You can gather this information by surveying your current customers and checking out conversations in relevant Facebook groups and online forums. Create an Enticing Lead Magnet. Facebook ads are more effective when you give something away that your target audience will love. Ideally, this free resource, also known as a lead magnet, will help get your customers one step closer to solving their problem and let them see you as an expert who can guide them the rest of the way. Checklists, videos, or short e-books often work best as lead magnets. Choose Your Targeting Options. When you're ready to create your ad, you need to decide who you want to see it. The great thing about Facebook ads is that you can choose from 50 different filters to pinpoint exactly who sees your ad. With these simple tips, you can use Facebook ads to improve your lead generation, reach your ideal customer, and get them to convert into paying customers. Sources: Social Media Examiner, Wishpond Economic Calendar for the Week of February 4 - February 8 Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact Tue. February 05 10:00 ISM Services Index Jan NA 57.6 Moderate Wed. February 06 08:30 Productivity Q4 NA 2.3% Moderate Thu. February 07 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 2/02 NA NA Moderate This credit union is federally insured by the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA). Accounts and shares are insured by the Administration to the maximum insurance amount for each member or shareholder. Unless otherwise noted, fees may be associated with certain products and services. Certain UNFCU products and services are subject to approval. Federal and state laws may limit the availability of certain products and services in select areas. UNFCU is a registered mark of the United Nations Federal Credit Union. The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only and is not intended for consumer distribution. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is without errors. Mortgage Market Guide, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Market Guide, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose. © 2019. Vantage Production, LLC. All rights reserved.