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Last Week in Review: Euro issues drift onto our shores
Forecast for the Week: Economic reports are back
View: Learn more about referral-only business practice and decide if it's right for you.
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Bad news is good news for the U.S. Bond market and rates. This past week, bad news by way of worse than expected economic numbers in Europe cast a dark shadow on the financial markets. As a result, U.S. home loan rates ticked down to the best levels in ten months.
The U.S. economy is the "cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry" when compared to other global economies -- meaning our economy is performing pretty well, while countries like Germany are on the brink of recession.
How do problems in Europe help our rates? With their economies materially slowing, their Central Bank, the ECB, will not be raising rates anytime soon -- possibly not for another year or more. This means their rates will stay low for longer. And when rates around the globe move lower it drags U.S. rates lower as well.
The chance of a Fed rate hike in 2019 is looking more unlikely every day and this fresh round of weak economic data from Europe helps the Feds case for no hikes in 2019.
In the absence of a surprise uptick in economic growth and inflation, we should expect home loan rates to remain near current levels for2019 and possibly beyond.
If you or someone you know has questions about home loans, give me a call. I'd be happy to help.
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After last week's light schedule of economic data, this week's calendar is filled with data that could move the markets and interest rates.
The Fed is "data-dependent," meaning they are watching the incoming data carefully and will use these reports to determine their next course of action -- whether to hike or even cut rates later this year.
Inflation numbers, manufacturing, consumer spending and sentiment along with a reading on small business optimism will be released.
As mentioned earlier, inflation is a key metric for the Fed. The rate of inflation has started to show signs of slowing -- if that trend continues, we will likely see home loan rates improve again.
Reports to watch:
- Inflation data in the upcoming week will come from Wednesdays Consumer Price Index followed by the Producer Price Index on Thursday.
- Retail Sales will be delivered on Thursday along with Weekly Initial Jobless Claims.
- On Friday, the Empire Manufacturing Index and Consumer Sentimentwill be released.
And while not a traditional economic data point, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index will be announced on Tuesday. Small businesses make up a large chunk of the U.S. labor market and the index has been hovering near all-time high levels.
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Tip: Is a Referral-Only Business Practice Right for Me?
Looking for new real estate clients takes ample time. Yet it's a necessary task if you want to grow your business. However, what if you could save time searching for new clients because they all came to you? While it sounds too good to be true, many agents grow their business solely through referrals. Read on to learn more about a referral-only business practice and decide if it's right for you.
Growing a referral-only business does have some advantages. First, you won't have to spend any extra money on advertising or networking. Also, when you talk to clients who are referred to you, they're usually ready to do business right away. Finally, since friends and family members are typically the ones who send referrals your way, a level of trust is already there.
Of course, every business practice has some drawbacks, and the referral-only practice is no exception. You lose an element of control with a referral-only business because referrals can happen at any time and with anybody. Also, if the referrals stop, you have to start building up your client base all over again.
If you think you're interested in moving toward a referral-only business practice, you should start by setting clear and defined referral goals. Also, remember that you can reach out to current and past clients, business associates, and professional contacts for referrals.
Once you've weighed the advantages and disadvantages of a referral-only business practice and decided it's right for you, be sure to implement these tips to help your business continue to grow.
Sources: Real Estate Express, Houston Chronicle
Economic Calendar for the Week of February 11 - February 15
Date
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ET
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Economic Report
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For
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Estimate
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Actual
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Prior
|
Impact
|
| Wed. February 13 |
08:30
| Consumer Price Index (CPI) |
Jan
|
NA
|
|
-0.1%
|
HIGH
|
| Wed. February 13 |
08:30
| Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) |
Jan
|
NA
|
|
0.2%
|
HIGH
|
| Thu. February 14 |
08:30
| Producer Price Index (PPI) |
Jan
|
NA
|
|
-0.2%
|
Moderate
|
| Thu. February 14 |
08:30
| Core Producer Price Index (PPI) |
Jan
|
NA
|
|
0.2%
|
Moderate
|
| Thu. February 14 |
08:30
| Jobless Claims (Initial) |
2/09
|
NA
|
|
NA
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Moderate
|
| Fri. February 15 |
08:30
| Retail Sales |
Jan
|
NA
|
|
NA
|
HIGH
|
| Fri. February 15 |
08:30
| Retail Sales ex-auto |
Jan
|
NA
|
|
NA
|
HIGH
|
| Fri. February 15 |
08:30
| Empire State Index |
Feb
|
NA
|
|
3.9
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Moderate
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| Fri. February 15 |
10:00
| Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM) |
Feb
|
NA
|
|
91.2
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Moderate
|
|
|
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