Why Retail Sales hitting a 9-year low could be bad

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Jeffrey Loyd Mortgage Loan Officer Phone: +1 212 243-0373 Fax +1 347 686-6406 NMLS #:: 410097 jloyd@unfcu.com www.unfcu.org/JeffreyL

In This Issue   Last Week in Review: Canary in the coal mine. Forecast for the Week: Housing reports on tap. View: Learn more about conducting a perfect open house. Last Week in Review   "Only got twenty dollars in my pocket" ...Thrift Shop by Macklemore & Ryan Lewis. The financial markets are sensing a government shutdown and protracted trade war with China will be averted. This is good news and a reason why Stocks have continued to push higher and home loan rates have capped for the past few weeks. But last Thursday, Retail Sales was reported at a shocking 9-year low. Combing through the report, a 3.9% decline in internet purchases was a huge negative surprise. With consumer spending making up nearly 70% of GDP, there is fear in the markets that this very poor Retail Sales number is an early warning sign that both consumer spending and thus economic growth are indeed slowing. One thing we know for sure -- Bonds love uncertainty and bad news. This Retail Sales report brought both and, as a result, pushed prices and home loan rates near the best levels in a year. We will be watching future Retail Sales reports to see if this is just one bad report or the start of a negative trend. In any case, reports like these support the Fed to not raise rates in 2019. If you or someone you know has questions about home loans, give me a call. I'd be happy to help. Forecast for the Week   This week, housing data dominates the headlines as the sector looks to rebound after ending 2018 on a low note. Freddie Mac said last week that while housing activity has clearly softened over the last nine months and the lingering effects of higher rates from last year are still being felt, the recent decline in home loan rates coupled with a strong job market should rekindle demand as we enter the spring home buying season. The minutes from the January Fed meeting will also be released and, while it is generally accepted that the Fed will be on hold for interest rates, the investing community will closely scrutinize the minutes for any signals on the Fed's balance sheet reduction. All U.S. markets are closed on Monday in observance of President's Day. Reports to watch: NAHB Housing Market Index will be released on Tuesday followed by Housing Starts and Building Permits on Wednesday and Existing Home Sales on Thursday. The Philadelphia Fed Index will be delivered on Thursday along with Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Durable Orders. Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday, February 15, 2019) The Mortgage Market Guide View...   Tip: How Do You Carry Out a Perfect Open House? A successful property showing followed by a sale often depends on a good open house. Let's look at four tips for the perfect open house. Make a good first impression by sprucing up the front door. Because the front door is the first thing a prospective buyer sees, an inviting front door and entrance set the tone for the rest of the house. Give the viewers space. Although you need to be available to answer questions, make sure you give homebuyers time and room to have a good look around the house and property. In that way, they can start picturing it as their own home. Create a single property website. Potential buyers often spend a lot of time during an open house trying to take photos of the house from every angle. An effective marketing strategy is to create a property website that includes detailed photos of the house along with all the features, both internal and external, of the house. Once this is done, give a simple flyer to all visitors to the open house with a short URL link or QR code where visitors can browse the photos. Running a Facebook Live stream of the open house is a great way to get social media activity and have viewers' eyes on the home. A live stream showing other people viewing the house builds momentum and desire for anyone viewing the video. Even if you don't sell the house that day, use the open day as an opportunity to create the video and market it online. These few open house tips will help you to plan an open house that attracts buyers and impresses your clients. Make your open house shine. Source: Fitsmallbusiness Economic Calendar for the Week of February 18 - February 22 Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact Tue. February 19 10:00 Housing Market Index Feb NA 58 Moderate Wed. February 20 14:00 FOMC Minutes Jan NA NA HIGH Wed. February 20 08:30 Building Permits Jan NA NA Moderate Wed. February 20 08:30 Housing Starts Jan NA NA Moderate Thu. February 21 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jan NA 4.99M Moderate Thu. February 21 08:30 Durable Goods Orders Dec NA 0.8% Moderate Thu. February 21 08:30 Philadelphia Fed Index Feb NA 17.0 HIGH This credit union is federally insured by the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA). Accounts and shares are insured by the Administration to the maximum insurance amount for each member or shareholder. Unless otherwise noted, fees may be associated with certain products and services. Certain UNFCU products and services are subject to approval. Federal and state laws may limit the availability of certain products and services in select areas. UNFCU is a registered mark of the United Nations Federal Credit Union. The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only and is not intended for consumer distribution. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. 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