🔺 New Homes Sales are Up 🔺

The partial government shutdown ended last Friday so the delay of sales of newly built homes for November was reported today with a big number. November New Homes Sales jumped 17% from October to an annual rate of 657,000 units, well above the 555,000 expected. However, sales were down 7.7% from November 2017. Across the country, sales jumped 100% in the Northeast, up 30.5% in the Midwest, up 20.6% in the South with a 5.9% decline in the West. There was a six-month supply of homes for sale om the market which is seen as normal. A solid report though somewhat backward looking due to the delay in reporting the numbers.

Mortgage rates were essentially unchanged in the latest week after the rise seen from January 2018 through November. Freddie Mac reports that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average 4.46% this week with an average of 0.50 in points and fees. A year ago this time, the rate was 4.22%. Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, says, “Purchase applications were down this week after soaring early in the year. However, softening house price appreciation along with the increasing inventory of homes on the market – and historically low mortgage rates – should give a boost to the spring homebuying season.”

Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits rose to a near two and a half year high in the latest week. The partial government shutdown could be attributed to the jump in claims. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose 53,000 in the week ended January 26, above the 220,000 expected. The four-week moving average of initial claims, which irons out seasonal abnormalities, rose 5,000 to 220,250.

Sources: 

NASDAQ: https://www.nasdaq.com/article/us-existing-home-sales-unexpectedly-jump-19-in-november-20181219-00655

Freddie Mac: http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/

Job Numbers Remain Strong

ADP National Employment Report January 2019

The labor market continues to produce strong numbers while the U.S. economy remains on solid ground. ADP reports that private employment grew by 213,000 in January, well above the 170,000 expected. December was revised lower to 263,000 from 271,000 and also a strong number. “The labor market has continued its pattern of strong growth with little sign of a slowdown in sight. Midsized businesses continue to lead job creation. However the share of jobs was spread a bit more evenly across all company sizes this month," said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.

Contracts signed but not yet closed for home purchases fell again in December, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Pending Homes Sales fell 2.2% from November to December and are down nearly 10% from December 2017. It was the lowest December reading since December 2013 and marks 12 straight months of annual declines. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, cited several reasons for the decline in pending sales. “The stock market correction hurt consumer confidence, record high home prices cut into affordability and mortgage rates were higher in October and November for consumers signing contracts in December,” he said.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reports that mortgage rates were essentially unchanged in the latest week and have remained near current levels for several weeks now. The MBA said the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was at 4.76% in the week ended January 25 with 0.47 in points. Within the report, it showed that the refinance index fell 6% while the purchase index fell 2%. The survey covers over 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990.

Home Price Gains Slow Amid Lower Consumer Confidence

Home price gains slowed in November and are now coming back down to more normal levels. The Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index rose 4.7% from November 2017 to November 2018, down from 5% in October. On a monthly basis, the 20-City Index rose 0.3%. The report read that stable 2% inflation, continued employment growth and rising wages are all favorable to the housing market ahead of the spring buying season.

Consumer Confidence edged lower in January from December to 120.2 from 126.6 though the index remains just below the all-time high levels, reported the Conference Board. Within the report it showed that those stating jobs are "plentiful" increased marginally, while those claiming jobs are "hard to get" also increased. "Shock events such as government shutdowns tend to have sharp, but temporary, impacts on consumer confidence. Thus, it appears that this month’s decline is more the result of a temporary shock than a precursor to a significant slowdown in the coming months," said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators.

The full report of the consumer confidence survey. 

Case Shiller Graph

Finally Open Again

Partial Government Shutdown / Cropped Photo: Bjoertvedt / Wikimedia / CC BY-SA 3.0 / (MGN)

This week the U.S. financial markets will get a big dose of economic data along with a central bank meeting. The week features the two-day Fed meeting which kicks off on Tuesday and ends Wednesday with the monetary policy statement release at 2:00 p.m. ET. There is a zero percent chance of a hike at this meeting. The jobs data will come by way of Wednesday's ADP Private Payrolls and Friday's government Jobs Report, both for January.

If that weren't enough, the Treasury will be selling a total of $113 billion in Treasury securities. In addition, the heart of earnings season takes place this week and the results could impact the markets. Caterpillar reported an earnings miss and lower future guidance today, which is weighing on stocks this morning. U.S. China trade talks will also take place this week.

The partial government shutdown temporarily ended on Friday as federal workers are eager to get back to work and receive their back pay. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reports that the shutdown cost the U.S. economy $11 billion, though a big portion of the $11 billion will be reversed as the government opens and workers return to work though $3 billion of the $11 billion will be permanently lost. Lawmakers now have until February 15 to hammer out a long-term deal.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/27/us/politics/shutdown-congress-trump-wall.html

Calm before the Storm for Financial Markets

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Jeffrey Loyd Mortgage Loan Officer Phone: +1 212 243-0373 Fax +1 347 686-6406 NMLS #:: 410097 jloyd@unfcu.com www.unfcu.org/JeffreyL

In This Issue   Last Week in Review: Rates touch 2019 highs this week Forecast for the Week: Fed Meeting and Jobs Report on tap View: Learn how to create a healthy work-life balance Last Week in Review   Despite bond friendly news with the unresolved US/China trade relations and the ongoing government shutdown, rates actually touched 2019 highs midweek...this as stocks continue to move higher. Home loan rates have been on the rise ever since the last Jobs Report and Fed Speech back on Friday, Jan 4th -- next week we are seeing another Jobs Report and Fed Meeting...more on those big events below. The Housing market showed a surprising decline in Existing Home Sales in December. Despite the poor reading to finish the year, 2019 is setting up to be a good year. Historically low home rates, a slowing rate of home price increases along with the highest wage gains in a decade will see to that. If you or someone you know has questions about home loans, give me a call. I'd be happy to help. Forecast for the Week   Boom! This could be a very important week for the financial markets and home loan rates. The FOMC (Fed) meeting kicks off on Tuesday and ends Wednesday with the 2:00 p.m. ET release of the monetary policy statement. The Fed will not hike the short-term Fed Funds Rate, but what they say in the statement could influence the next directional move for home loan rates. The last time the Fed spoke back on January 4th, Stocks and rates both moved higher and have been doing so ever since. Those shopping for a home would be wise to follow what the Fed says on Wednesday. Another very real threat to rates will be the January ADP Private Payrolls Report and Jobs Report. The last Jobs Report was a spectacular reading and home loan rates moved higher as a result. Throw in a whopping $113 billion in new Bond supply from the Treasury along with the heart of corporate earnings season and it sets the markets up for a very important week for rates... Reports to watch: Housing data will come from Tuesday's S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index followed by Pending Home Sales on Wednesday. Consumer Confidence will be delivered on Tuesday with Consumer Sentiment on Friday. Manufacturing data comes from Thursday's Chicago PMI and Friday's ISM National Manufacturing Index. Key labor market data will be released on Wednesday with ADP Private Payrolls and Friday's government Jobs Report. Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday, January 25, 2019) The Mortgage Market Guide View...   Tip: How to Find a Healthy Work-Life Balance As technology helps us become even more connected, the push for a work-life balance continues to grow, and it's easy to see why. Having the right work-life balance can reduce stress. Not only does this help prevent burnout on the job, but it also cuts down on common health issues that result from chronic stress, such as digestive troubles, anxiety, hypertension, heart problems, and insomnia. If you're interested in finding a healthy work-life balance at work and home, the following tips can help. Set Goals. When you get to work, make a list of what you want to accomplish that day. Put the most important projects on top, so you can concentrate on them. Research shows that when you have more control over your work, you feel less stressed. Setting goals helps you maintain that control. Learn How to Say No. You don't have to accept every request that comes your way in your work and personal life. Take a look at your schedule and decide what you truly have time to accomplish. If you simply can't take on a PTA position or serve on another committee at work, you can politely decline. Unplug. The same technology that makes it easier for you to do your job can also cause you more stress. When you get home, make sure you respect your private time by turning off your phone and laptop. Finding the right work-life balance is important for your job and your personal life. If you feel like stress from work is taking over your life, try implementing a few of these tips. Sources: Forbes, Mental Health America Economic Calendar for the Week of January 28 - February 1 Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact Tue. January 29 09:00 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Nov NA 5.0% Moderate Tue. January 29 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jan NA 128.1 Moderate Wed. January 30 8:15 ADP National Employment Report Jan NA 271K HIGH Wed. January 30 10:00 Pending Home Sales Dec NA -0.7% Moderate Wed. January 30 14:00 FOMC Meeting Jan Unch 2.50% HIGH Thu. January 31 08:30 Personal Income Dec NA 0.2% Moderate Thu. January 31 09:45 Chicago PMI Jan NA 65.4 Moderate Thu. January 31 08:30 Personal Spending Dec NA 0.4% Moderate Thu. January 31 08:30 Employment Cost Index (ECI) Q4 NA 0.8% HIGH Thu. January 31 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 1/26 NA NA Moderate Fri. February 1 08:30 Unemployment Rate Dec NA 3.9% HIGH Fri. February 1 08:30 Non-farm Payrolls Dec NA 312K HIGH Fri. February 1 08:30 Average Work Week Dec NA 34.5 HIGH Fri. February 1 10:00 Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM) Jan NA 90.7 Moderate Fri. February 1 08:30 Hourly Earnings Dec NA 0.4% HIGH The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only and is not intended for consumer distribution. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is without errors. Mortgage Market Guide, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Market Guide, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose. © 2019. Vantage Production, LLC. All rights reserved.

Home Prices Rise Year Over Year

Modest Increase in Aggregate Home Prices

Zillow reports that median home prices rose 7.6% year-over-year in December 2018, to $223,900, just above the 7.4% recorded in December 2017. Rents increased at an annual pace of 1.4%, the largest increase since June 2018. When looking more closely at local conditions in the country's biggest markets revealed a sometimes-notable slowdown in a majority of them. In addition, housing inventories fell 0.4% since December 2017.

U.S. stocks are on the rise today as the week comes to an end. Strong corporate earnings and optimism that the government shutdown will soon come to an end are boosting equities. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 300 points at the time of this writing and is up nearly 14% since the lows seen at the close on Christmas Eve, 2018. Next week the markets will have to cope with two key labor market reports and the two-day Fed meeting.

Gas prices rose this week though they remain below levels seen a year ago. Demand for gasoline has risen in the last few weeks, prompting slightly higher prices. The national average for a regular gallon of gasoline at the pump is at $2.27, up a few cents on the week but below last month's prices. The highest price ever recorded was $4.11 back on July 17, 2008.

Click for Full Interactive Report on Zillow

The trend continues as we honor MLK

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Jeffrey Loyd Mortgage Loan Officer Phone: +1 212 243-0373 Fax +1 347 686-6406 NMLS #:: 410097 jloyd@unfcu.com www.unfcu.org/JeffreyL

In This Issue Last Week in Review: Stocks continue their winning ways Forecast for the Week: Light news week ahead of Fed View: Learn more about how social media can help grow your business Last Week in Review Home loan rates finished this week near unchanged and remain near 9-month lows -- so we have that going for us. Most of the week's news was pretty bond friendly, including Brexit uncertainty, ongoing Government shutdown, ongoing US/China trade dispute, low inflation and more. So why haven't rates improved further with these bond-friendly tailwinds? The first Friday of 2019 was the day things changed for the Bond Market when a blockbuster Jobs Report and overly "dovish" Fed Chair Powell speech were delivered, which has helped Stocks move steadily higher at the expense of Bonds. Here's an important word to consider as we head into the Spring home buying season and that's disinflation, which means a slowing growth rate of inflation. We are seeing signs of this today and if the trend continues, home loan rates will benefit as 2019progresses. If you or someone you know has questions about home loans, give me a call. I'd be happy to help. Forecast for the Week We kick off the week remembering Martin Luther King Jr. and the financial markets will be closed. This is otherwise a light news week and with the government partially closed some reports, like New Home Sales and Durable Orders may not be reported. Corporate quarterly earnings season ramps up this week after mostly positive numbers thus far. Stocks continued their winning ways and have done so thanks to the Fed Powell speech back on Jan 4th. Speaking of the Fed -- there will be no Fed members speaking this coming week ahead of the two-day Fed meeting on January 29-30. There is zero chance of a rate hike in January. The markets will be listening closely to the Fed's thoughts on future hikes. At the moment, there is a very good chance the Fed Funds Rate will finish 2019 at current levels -- meaning no rate hikes. Reports to watch: Existing Home Sales will be released on Tuesday followed possibly by New Home Sales on Friday. As usual, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be released on Thursday. Durable Orders may be released on Friday. Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday, January 18, 2019) The Mortgage Market Guide View... Tip: Social Media and Property Pages: A Statistical Review Today, it seems as though everyone has a social media page. In fact, around 70 percent of the U.S. population has at least one social media profile. If you're interested in connecting your business with even more potential customers, advertising on social media could be the way to go. This is especially true for home sellers and agents. Millennials now account for 66 percent of the market for first-time homebuyers, and almost all of them use the internet to research and look at homes. If you're trying to expand your potential market, some of the top social media platforms can help. Facebook: Currently, 69 percent of real estate agents say they use Facebookbecause it makes it easier to deliver advertisements to their coredemographics. If you plan to post videos on Facebook to advertise a home,keep in mind that only 15 percent of users watch Facebook videos with thesound on. If you don't include subtitles, you're missing out on a large portion ofyour target market. Instagram: Another top social media channel that home sellers should consideris Instagram. Not only is Instagram currently the fastest-growing social medianetwork, but its visual nature also fits in perfectly with real estate. Also, don'tforget to include the right hashtags to expand your reach. When you're looking to grow your business, choosing the right content to share onsocial media can help. After all, you never know when your next potential buyer couldbe scrolling through your social media feed. Sources: Lyfe Marketing, Adweek Economic Calendar for the Week of January 21 - January 25 Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact Tue. January 22 10:00 Existing Home Sales Dec NA 5.32M Moderate Thu. January 24 8:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 1/19 NA NA Moderate Fri. January 25 08:30 Durable Goods Orders Dec NA 0.8% Moderate Fri. January 25 10:00 New Home Sales Dec NA NA Moderate This credit union is federally insured by the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA). Accounts and shares are insured by the Administration to the maximum insurance amount for each member or shareholder. Unless otherwise noted, fees may be associated with certain products and services. Certain UNFCU products and services are subject to approval. Federal and state laws may limit the availability of certain products and services in select areas. UNFCU is a registered mark of the United Nations Federal Credit Union. The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only and is not intended for consumer distribution. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is without errors. Mortgage Market Guide, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Market Guide, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose. © 2019. Vantage Production, LLC. All rights reserved.

When the trend is no longer your friend

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Jeffrey Loyd Mortgage Loan Officer Phone: +1 212 243-0373 Fax +1 347 686-6406 NMLS #:: 410097 jloyd@unfcu.com www.unfcu.org/JeffreyL

In This Issue   Last Week in Review: No rate hikes in 2019. Who wins? Forecast for the Week: Plenty to follow this week View: Tips for using infographics Last Week in Review   "We are good where we stand right now"...Fed President James Bullard - 1/10/19 Stocks continued to react positively to Fed Chair Powell's Jan 4th speech, where he essentially said, "we have your back"...meaning that the Fed will be "flexible" and may not raise rates at all in 2019. There is an old saying in the financial markets - "don't fight the Fed." This means that if the Fed is saying or doing something (hinting no rate hikes) that helps Stocks, that theme will continue until the story changes. Typically, when stocks move higher, so do long-term rates, like home loans. And this past week, we saw the recent nice trend of lower rates get disrupted. Even though the recent trend of lower rates, the lowest since the Spring, is very much at risk - we should not expect long-term rates to move too high. Why? Inflation is not a threat. Fed President Bullard, quoted above, also said he expects inflation to be near current levels for the next FIVE years. If that is the case, home loan rates will remain relatively attractive for longer than most expect. If you or someone you know has questions about home loans, give me a call. I'd be happy to help. Forecast for the Week   The Fed is very much "data-dependent", meaning they will watch the incoming economic reports to help them determine their next move with interest rates. And this week brings a full slate of economic reports including numbers on housing, manufacturing, consumer spending and overall sentiment. It would take a surprising positive change in economic data to cause the Fed to hike rates before June. Some economic data, like Retail Sales and Housing Starts, may not be released if the government shutdown continues. The uncertainty behind the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and U.S./China trade dispute continues to provide support for Bonds and home loan rates. Should these events come to a positive resolution, Bonds may drop, and rates may rise. The opposite is true. Reports to watch: The wholesale inflation reading Producer Price Index will be released on Tuesday. Manufacturing data from Tuesday's Empire State Index will be followed by the Philadelphia Fed Index on Thursday. Retail Sales may be released on Wednesday, given the government shutdown situation. Housing data from the NAHB Housing Market Index will be delivered on Wednesday and possibly Housing Starts and Building Permits on Thursday. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be announced on Thursday. Friday brings Consumer Sentiment. Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday, January 11, 2019) The Mortgage Market Guide View...   Tip: How to Use an Infographic to Your Advantage Staying motivated can be one of the most difficult challenges in the real estate industry you may face. While having established goals and a clear future path are integral components of staying motivated, another crucial component is being able to cut out common distractions. Infographics are a great way to break down and share complex, detailed information in a way that is easily digestible for your customers. Visual representations of important data can keep readers interested in difficult content for longer and help them understand what they are reading. Here are a few simple steps you can take to make sure that your infographics work to your advantage. You'll need to optimize your infographic to make it search engine friendly. No matter how amazing your infographic is, if it is not seen, it will have little effect. To get the most from your infographics, there are three primary elements that you need to focus on: file name, alt text, and meta description. Your file name should be as descriptive and concise as possible. The alt text should give your readers context for the infographic, and the meta description should be straightforward and include a call to action. When creating infographics, innovation is key. You can make simple modifications to provide a new, inventive approach to conveying the information. Interactive charts and unique animations are great for calling attention to the important facts you want to present. Always make sure that the data is clear and easy to understand, but give each infographic a unique twist or design that will engage the reader. An Infographic can help you achieve your content goals if it summarizes some of the key content of the post that accompanies it. Use your infographics to your advantage by making them easy to comprehend, SEO-friendly, and visually appealing. Source: Maximize Social Business Economic Calendar for the Week of January 14 - January 18 Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact Tue. January 15 08:30 Producer Price Index (PPI) Dec NA 0.1% Moderate Tue. January 15 08:30 Core Producer Price Index (PPI) Dec NA 0.3% Moderate Tue. January 15 08:30 Empire State Index Jan NA 10.9 Moderate Wed. January 16 14:00 Beige Book Jan NA NA Moderate Wed. January 16 08:30 Retail Sales Dec NA 0.2% HIGH Wed. January 16 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Dec NA 0.2% HIGH Wed. January 16 10:00 Housing Market Index Jan NA 56 Moderate Thu. January 17 08:30 Philadelphia Fed Index Jan NA 9.4 HIGH Thu. January 17 08:30 Housing Starts Dec NA 1.256M Moderate Thu. January 17 08:30 Building Permits Dec NA 1.328M Moderate Thu. January 17 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 1/12 NA NA Moderate Fri. January 18 10:00 Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM) Jan NA 98.3 Moderate This credit union is federally insured by the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA). Accounts and shares are insured by the Administration to the maximum insurance amount for each member or shareholder. Unless otherwise noted, fees may be associated with certain products and services. Certain UNFCU products and services are subject to approval. Federal and state laws may limit the availability of certain products and services in select areas. UNFCU is a registered mark of the United Nations Federal Credit Union. The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only and is not intended for consumer distribution. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is without errors. Mortgage Market Guide, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Market Guide, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose. Powered by DB Nurture. © 2019. Vantage Production, LLC. All rights reserved.